Since the February 2021 military coup, there have been countrywide protests against the junta, which has responded with force, killing close to a thousand people in the last year. The security situation in Myanmar is likely to worsen in 2022. The question will be whether sustained violations will be enough of a catalyst to spark renewed fighting within 2022. A militarily weaker Armenia will be hesitant to participate in another war in the short-term, but the conflict is far from resolved and 2022 is likely to see a continuation of ceasefire violations. A ceasefire brokered by Russia is largely holding, though occasional violations indicate that the underlying tensions remain. The September-November 2020 war was the most significant flare-up since the 1990s, in which at least 6,000 troops from both sides were killed. However, a major war like the 2020 conflict is not on the cards. In the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, the longstanding conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, will continue to result in cross-border shelling and limited casualties in 2022. Yet, given the conflict remains unresolved, occasional retaliatory actions between the two parties will remain an ever-present threat. 2022 is likely to see Hamas focus on reconstruction efforts in Gaza while a disparate coalition government in Israel could see a refocus on domestic affairs. Although neither side is eager to provoke a sustained conflict, the 2021 flare-up, the fourth major conflict between the two parties since 2008, is an important reminder of simmering tensions. Israeli airstrikes caused significant destruction in the Gaza Strip, while Hamas’ indiscriminate rocket attacks damaged public and private property, particularly in southern Israel. The war killed more than 250 Palestinians and a dozen people in Israel. Amid major and longstanding disagreements, in May 2021, a land dispute in Sheikh Jarrah, East Jerusalem, prompted violent protests and riots in Israel and the West Bank, culminating in yet another war between Israel, and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. Senior Israeli leaders and their Palestinian counterparts continue to accuse one another of obstructing peace efforts. The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has remained frozen since 2014, with no major push from the international community to urge the two sides to negotiate.
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